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3/10/10,
Arthur Cashin, UBS on Market Volume
Source: The Big Picture
A countdown to the opening bell, with Arthur Cashin, UBS Financial Services director, floor operations. Airtime: Wed. Mar. 10 2010 | 8:50 AM ET Comment or Read More at The Big Picture |
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3/10/10,
What to Expect from the Market in the Next 8 Years
Source: GuruFocus Updates -
Comment or Read More at GuruFocus Updates - |
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3/10/10,
Tyler Technologies Inc. (TYL) Chairman of the Board John M Yeaman sells 7,000 Shares
Source: GuruFocus Updates -
Comment or Read More at GuruFocus Updates - |
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3/10/10,
Dominant US Burger Chains
Source: The Big Picture
From Weather Sealed, we get this terrific map of the 8 largest American burger chains: > Comment or Read More at The Big Picture |
3/10/10,
Feds to Banks: Don’t Give Cash to Shareholders Just Yet
Source: WSJ.com: MarketBeat
This doesn’t sound good for those bank shareholders hoping against hope that dividend raises are just around the corner. The Financial Times is reporting that regulators are telling banks to hold onto their cash instead of returning it. FT Alphaville reports:
And Dealbook pulls this quote from the actual FT story, which abides behind a firewall:
While this might be disappointing for those that were hoping to see more in the way of payout boosting from financials, it was far from clear that the healthiest banks were on the verge of returning cash to shareholders in the immediate future. Even J.P. Morgan Chase, with its “fortress” balance sheet didn’t act like boosting payouts was a near-term priority. “Higher dividends remain on CEOs (and boards) radar,” wrote Ladenburg Thalmann analysts in late February after JPM’s investors day. “However, they prudently want to see several months of better employment and other signs of economic stabilization.” Comment or Read More at WSJ.com: MarketBeat |
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3/10/10,
China today comes back into focus
Source: The Big Picture
With the Greece fire out for now and earnings season over, the other factor that was a catalyst for the near 10% correction in stocks late Jan into Feb, China, becomes a focus again. With speculation building that China may soon raise interest rates, they report their CPI tonight. Ahead of it, Feb exports rose 45.7% y/o/y, well above expectations of 38.3%. Import growth was also above forecasts. Also, a housing price index rose at the fastest pace since Apr ‘08. Portugal successfully sold 10 yr notes at an avg yield of 4.17%, about 65 bps below an issue sold last month and well below the 6.39% yield where Greece sold 10 yrs. ABC confidence was unchanged at -49, remaining 2 pts below the one yr avg. The MBA said purchases rose 5.7% and has now risen 15% since hitting its lowest level since 1997 two weeks ago. Refi’s fell 1.5%. Gasoline prices rose to a fresh 17 month high at $2.77. II: Bulls 44.9 v 42.1 Bears 23.6 v 22.7 Comment or Read More at The Big Picture |
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3/10/10,
U.S. Stocks Searching For Direction
Source: WSJ.com: MarketBeat
Early signs suggest we may be in for another fitful session for U.S. stocks. Apart from last Friday’s rally, it’s been an aimless wander for about three weeks now as investors wrestle with troubles in Europe, indications of improvement in a variety of US economic data and ongoing doubts about the strength of the economic recovery with unemployment still high and few signs of hiring. January wholesale trade data due at 10:00 a.m. Stocks mixed in Asia overnight, slightly higher in Europe. Comment or Read More at WSJ.com: MarketBeat |
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3/10/10,
Why Are We Asking the Wrong Questions?
Source: GuruFocus Updates -
Comment or Read More at GuruFocus Updates - |
3/10/10,
Reaching, Once Again, For Yield
Source: The Big Picture
> One of the factors that caused the great credit crisis to spread far and wide was the “reach for yield.” This is one of the most expensive ways a fixed income investor can obtain a higher potential return on their bond investments. Note that I used the term “higher,” not “better,” and the word “potential,” not “actual.”As we have seen, high yielding junk paper often goes bust, making the yield grab an exercise in foolish futility. Thank goodness bond investors learned their lesson in the credit collapse of 2008-09. Only not so much. In 2009, bond buyers poured $7.8 billion into higher-yielding municipal bond funds, more or less ignoring the precarious financial conditions of cities and states. Rather than accept ultra low yields as a consequence of Federal Reserve action in 2001, bond buyers poured into various mortgage backed securities. Even though they were paying 250 to 350 basis points more than Treasuries, they were rated the same: AAA. This time, they are eschewing the fraudulent AAA ratings from Moody’s and S&P, and instead are buying naked junk. The bet is that the cities will be bailed out, and their grab for higher yield will be safely rewarded. This is MORAL HAZARD writ large. Bailouts encourage irresponsible behavior, as their are no negative consequences. Here’s Bloomberg:
Investors in these funds would do well to remember that Return OF Capital is more important than Return ON Capital. > Source: Comment or Read More at The Big Picture |
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3/10/10,
March 10, 2010 - Review of the VT26 Volatility Breakout Strategy
Source: CXO Advisory Blog - Investing Notes
Comment or Read More at CXO Advisory Blog - Investing Notes |
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3/10/10,
Threats to Regulate CDS Market Sound Familiar
Source: WSJ.com: MarketBeat
Speculation about the damaging effects of “speculative” derivatives trading has become de rigueur for European politicians lately. One thing to keep in mind is that we’ve seen regulators make this move before when they temporarily banned negative bets against financial shares. In the throes of the banking crisis in the fall of 2008, regulators in the U.K. and U.S. moved to ban the practice of short-selling financial stocks out of concern this was exacerbating market volatility, facilitating rumor-mongering and generally contributing to a sense of fatalism among investors. In short selling, investors borrow shares and sell them, hoping they can buy the shares later at a lower price and replace them, turning a profit. It seemed prudent at the time to limit risks given that investors across the globe were worried about entire banks keeling over and the financial system freezing. The U.K.’s markets regulator, the Financial Services Authority, later said that the fact that markets were more orderly and there were fewer rumors circulating showed that the ban had helped counter abuse and calm markets. Hedge funds and others argued they were being scape-goated. In the U.S., the Securities and Exchange Commission was accused of adding to market confusion with actions that didn’t do much to halt the fall in financial stocks. A similar drama is unfolding now with respect to derivative contracts called credit-default swaps that investors can buy to insure themselves against the risk of a corporate or sovereign debt default. Officials in Germany, France and Greece worry that credit-default swap traders are betting against countries and worrying the market unnecessarily at a time when countries need to raise huge amounts of cash in the capital markets to finance their deficits. No one knows who exactly is doing the trading just as no one initially knew whose mortgage bonds ill-fated American International Group had insured using similar swaps. Moreover, there seems to be little need, according to some regulators, for “naked” trading, where an investor isn’t buying insurance for an asset he holds but simply making a cheap and easy bet. And yet, it’s hard to find concrete evidence that such trading is contributing markedly to Greece’s woes. A study released Monday by Germany’s financial regulator, BaFin, found no evidence that CDS have been used to speculate against Greek national debt. Indeed, one could make the same accusation against the European government bond market, where prices of Greek bonds have tanked. Market players, meanwhile, seem to be betting that all this sound and fury will pass, though they’re not entirely sure. One possibility is that regulators, as they did with short-selling of bank stocks, ultimately dont go as far as investors feared. In Europe, that would mean sticking with planned measures to push more trading into so-called clearing-houses and beefing up transparency requirements. After all, markets are starting to calm a little bit Greek insurance protection now costs about $274,000 a year compared with over $400,000 in early February and much is accomplished simply be saber-rattling. Comment or Read More at WSJ.com: MarketBeat |
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3/10/10,
SNB Intervention Suspected as Franc Drops
Source: WSJ.com: MarketBeat
Official intervention by the Swiss National Bank is once again suspected Wednesday after the Swiss franc dropped sharply against the euro. The euro jumped from a one-month low of 1.4612 francs to 1.4631 francs in European trading hours, but there was no similar movement against the dollar. In line with its usual policy, the Swiss National Bank declined to comment. It is thought to have intervened on a small scale several times this year, preventing the euro from falling below current levels. At this point, it is unclear whether the SNB is behind the move, or whether it has been driven by other traders anticipating an official sting after an earlier appreciation in the Swiss currency. Comment or Read More at WSJ.com: MarketBeat |
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3/10/10,
Pound Slumps on Weak Data
Source: WSJ.com: MarketBeat
The pound took a hit after weaker-than-expected U.K. manufacturing and industrial output data. U.K. manufacturing output fell sharply in January as severe weather crimped activity, and in comparison with unusually strong production in December, Office for National Statistics data showed Wednesday. Manufacturing output fell 0.9% in the first month of the year, reflecting a broad-based weakening, with 11 out of 13 subsectors posting on-the-month declines. The pound dropped half a cent to $1.4910, while the euro hit the day’s high of 0.9114 pound. The U.K. FTSE 100 traded up 0.2%, ticking higher and showing little reaction to the data. Comment or Read More at WSJ.com: MarketBeat |
| 3/10/10, Trade Alert - RJET Source: Stock Insight |
| 3/10/10, Long one unit at 1140.75 Source: Carl Futia |
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3/10/10,
Guesstimates on March 10, 2010
Source: Carl Futia
March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1136-1150. I expect the market to reach 1200 over the next three months. Remember that activity will begin to move into the June contract at tomorrow's pit opening. QQQ: A rally to 50.00 is underway. TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.00%. TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%. Euro-US Dollar: This market is now headed for support near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months. Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00. April Crude: I think the market is headed for 50.00. Resistance is in the 81-83 range. GLD – April Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months. SLV - May Silver: I now think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now 18.30. Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway. Comment or Read More at Carl Futia |
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3/10/10,
China International Trade Review
Source: GuruFocus Updates -
Comment or Read More at GuruFocus Updates - |
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3/10/10,
Gold Backstabber from the SEC
Source: Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory
You have to be amused by the the most recent point-and-figure of the Gold contract shows gold in a pullback after a bullish column of Xs move. If Gold has a following, is it 'mad' or simply a rational alternative (capital flowing to rational alternatives) to global competitive devaluation of currency. After all, in a world driven by debt (credit), debasing your currency diminishes the impact of your debt. ____________________________________________________________ In "pole-axed" position (potential), the alpha dog by stochastics is Worden T2108 at 82 percent. If you're a contrarian, T2108 spells risk (high percentage of stocks above the 40 period moving average) RSI divergence stocks from the 100 MUST series. Just sayin'. ________________________________________________________________ Miscellaneous: For the Bulls: New Highs keep on trucking Stochastics oversold: SPX stocks (8) Stochastics oversold among the SP500. Good trading and great risk management to all. Educational use only. Never intended as investment advice. Comment or Read More at Technically Speaking, Market Analysis and Theory |
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3/10/10,
More Montier
Source: Random Roger
First up was that while he does a lot of reading he said most of what he reads is more about studying human behavior the specific market information. I would characterize this in part as benefiting from other people's mistakes. While this is useful I might fine tune it some to each person needing understand what they are vulnerable to. There are plenty of fallacies and other types unproductive behaviors that impede investment success and no one has all of them. This requires introspection. He also talked about information overload. This contrasts nicely with the quote yesterday from Jim Rogers who believes in watching everything. I probably fall closer to Rogers but what I would add is that I like to read people that I know I will disagree with. Coincidentally I exchanged emails with a buddy who asked me what I thought of a particular blogger. The blogger in question does a great job with isolating relevant issues and then asking the right questions but he often answers those questions incorrectly or does not seem to read the data correctly with some of his opinions. He is not always wrong obviously and not wrong even half the time but even though he is obviously wrong some portion of the time there is value in the issues he isolates so I read him. The need to sort out and even dismiss is handy skill to have in trying to study markets. Montier said people focus too much on the outcome not the process in a sort of live in the moment comment. But then a few sentences later he said; It appears as if investors have a chronic case of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The average holding period for a stock on the New York Stock Exchange is just 6 months! This has nothing to do with investment, and everything to do with speculation. Having a longer time horizon than these speculators appears to be one of the most enduring edges an investor can possess. In a way each sentiment could be saying two different things. I would tie them together by noting that there is no single process that can be the best every day, quarter or year. Hopefully whatever your process is you have reason to believe it gives you a chance to get the job done in the long term, whatever that means to you. Focusing on process could mean not losing faith in a reasonable method during one of those periods where that method is not the best. The idea of a longer time horizon being an enduring edge is similar to Hussman's thinking in terms of measuring the result over an entire stock market cycle which has been a big influence on me. I know plenty of people view portfolio construction and cycle navigation differently than how I do but the task is much easier when you embrace the fact that big declines happen every so often, you will not "outperform" the market every year and a simple yet reliable defensive trigger point for defense can go a long way to enduring through with less emotion and less emotion should result in fewer mistakes. One last item was a quote that Montier cited from Paul Samuelson “Investing should be dull, like watching paint dry or grass grow.” Personally I find the work exciting and interesting but I do spend a lot of time trying to make the portfolio dull. Comment or Read More at Random Roger |
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3/10/10,
Interview with Steven Alexander from Magic Diligence
Source: GuruFocus Updates -
Comment or Read More at GuruFocus Updates - |
| 3/9/10, Bowerbirds “Northern Lights” Source: Trading for the Masses 888-201-4201 |
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3/9/10,
Gran Tierra Energy Inc (GTE) CFO Martin H Eden sells 50,000 Shares
Source: GuruFocus Updates -
Comment or Read More at GuruFocus Updates - |
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3/9/10,
The Providence Service Corp. (PRSC) COO Craig A Norris sells 5,000 Shares
Source: GuruFocus Updates -
Comment or Read More at GuruFocus Updates - |
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3/9/10,
Sotheby's (BID) EVP & CFO William S Sheridan sells 13,103 Shares
Source: GuruFocus Updates -
Comment or Read More at GuruFocus Updates - |
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3/9/10,
City National Corp. (CYN) President and CEO, 10% Owner Russell D Goldsmith sells 2,000 Shares
Source: GuruFocus Updates -
Comment or Read More at GuruFocus Updates - |